Thursday, November 10, 2005

PAM the terminatrix makes waves

You Can Bet on Idea Markets

Harvard Business School - Working Knowledge [go to article]

A New ‘Wind Tunnel’ for Companies - Newsweek [go to article]

A Good Idea With Bad Press - NY Times [go to article]

Damn the Slam PAM Plan! -MSN Slate [go to article]

Multilateral, Multi-Item Trades Possible Through Net Exchange

Wall Street & Technology [go to article]

http://www.nex.com/innews.htm

In collaboration with New Scientist magazine, the bookmaker last summer offered odds on five science projects coming off by 2010.

Punters were offered odds of 10,000-1 against the discovery of life on Titan and 100-1 against the building of a fusion power station.

But it was news of an offer of 500-1 that gravitational waves would not be detected by the end of the decade that spread like wildfire among a select band of physicists and astronomers.

After more than three decades of hunting for them, Prof Jim Hough of Glasgow University, did not hesitate to call the bookmakers.

Prof Hough's Anglo-German GEO600 team is confident of making the detection in the next year. As well as putting him in the running for a Nobel prize, this will now make him £2,500, at Ladbrokes' expense.

A positive detection of gravitational waves - ripples in space and time - would confirm Einstein's general theory of relativity and potentially give astronomers an unprecedented view of the first few seconds of the existence of the Universe.

Prof Hough's bet of £25 at 100-1 was triggered by a timely call from a Daily Telegraph journalist.

As news spread and more and more bets were placed, the odds tumbled, to 10-1 by the end of the day and 5-1 after five days.

Ladbrokes, who closed the book two weeks later with the odds down to 2-1, face a potential loss of £150,000.

Gamble on anarchy.